Mitigation factors

The debate over the costs of GHG emission reduction has become more com-plex recently as disagreements over the existence of economic and environ-mental double dividents have been added to discussions over the existence of a negative cost potential. We argue that basic assumptions about economic effi-ciency, the (sub-)optimality of the baseline and the rate of technical change are more important than model structure, and we underline the importance of the timing of decisions for determining the costs. Moreover the use of a single baseline ‘no policy' scenario and several policy intervention scenarios may be fundamentally misleading in the longer term simply because the very idea of a business as usual scenario is deeply problematic. Ultimately the debate turns on political judgments about the desirability of alternative development paths. Copright© 1996 Elsevier Science Ltd.Greenhouse gas emissions;Costs of GHG reduction; Mitigation options

Equitable provision of long-term public goods: the role of negotiation mandates

In a one-period model, whether or not individual weights in the welfare function are based on initial endowments dictate who provides public goods. But with long-term public goods, banning wealth redistribution still allows for several equilibriums depending on Parties'willingness to acknowledge changes in negotiating powers over time, and on whether or not they care only for their own descendants. Adaptative and universal mandates lead to far more robust equilibrium. In all cases, a simple rule of thumb for allocating expenditures at first period emerges, independent of both the optimal level of public goods and the second-period distribution of expenditures.Montreal Protocol,Economic Theory&Research,Information Technology,Environmental Economics&Policies,General Technology,Montreal Protocol,Economic Theory&Research,Environmental Economics&Policies,Energy and Environment,Transport and Environment

Thirty-five years of long-run energy forecasting : lessons for climate change policy

This paper sheds light on an implicit dimension of the climate policy debate: the extent to which supply-side response (emission-reducing energy technologies) may substitute for the transformation of consumption behavior and thus help get around the political difficulties surrounding such behavioral transformation. The paper performs a meta-review of long-term energy forecasts since the end of the 1960s in order to put in perspective the controversies around technological optimism about the potential for cheap, large-scale, carbon-free energy production. This retrospective analysis encompasses 116 scenarios conducted over 36 years and analyzes their predictions for a) fossil fuels, b) nuclear energy, and c) renewable energy. The analysis demonstrates how the predicted relative shares of these three types of energy have evolved since 1970, for two cases: a) predicted shares in 2010, which shows how the initial outlooks for the 2000-2010 period have been revised as a function of observed trends; and b) predicted shares for t+30, which shows how these revisions have affected medium-term prospects. The analysis shows a decrease, since 1970, in technological optimism about switching away from fossil fuels; this decrease is unsurprisingly correlated with a decline in modelers’ beliefs in the suitability of nuclear energy. But, after a trend of increasing optimism, a declining trend also characterizes renewable energies in the 1980s and 1990s before a slight revival of technological optimism about renewables in the aftermath of Kyoto.Energy Production and Transportation,Energy and Environment,Environment and Energy Efficiency,Energy Demand,Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases

The Economics of a Lost Deal

This paper examines compromise spaces between competing perspectives on four key climate change issues: costs, level of domestic action, environmental integrity, and developing world involvement. Based on extensive simulations of a model integration tool, SAP12 (Stochastic Assessment of Climate Policies, 12 models), the analysis considers options for fine-tuning the Kyoto Protocol, such as concrete ceilings or levies on carbon imports; restoration payments to be made on excess emissions; credits for sequestration activities in Annex B countries; and others. It shows the critical importance of the baseline against which the performance of each tool has to be assessed in the absence of direct economic penalties for noncompliance. The restoration payment option (also known as a safety valve) emerges as a superior means of addressing the core policy issues, including environmental integrity, and provides a large compromise space between payments of $35 to$100 per ton of carbon.limate negotiations, 2010 carbon markets, uncertainty about abatement costs

The Economics of a Lost Deal : Kyoto - The Hague - Marrakesh

This paper examines prospects for compromise between competing perspectives on four key climate change issues: costs, level of domestic action, nvironmental integrity, and developing world involvement. It focuses on the policy issues stemming from the uncertainty about abatement costs. Based on extensive simulations of a model integration tool, SAP12 (Stochastic Assessment of Climate Policies, 12 models), the analysis considers options for fine-tuning the Kyoto Protocol, such as concrete ceilings or levies on carbon imports; "environmental restoration payments" to be made on excess emissions; and credits for equestration activities in Annex B countries. It demonstrates that the restoration payment (implemented through a safety valve) emerges as a superior means of addressing the cost uncertainty issue. The paper concludes that had this approach been taken at the COP6 climate negotiations, there would have been substantial room for compromise on payments of $35 to$100 per ton of carbon. Examining the Marrakech climate accord, it derives some lessons for attempts at completing Kyoto's unfinished business or at moving on to a new framework.climate negotiations; 2010 carbon markets; uncertainty about abatement costs

Equitable Provision of Long-Term Public GoodsThe role of Negotiation Mandates

We examine the international distribution of expenditures for the provision ofa global, long-term and uncertain public goods from the point of view of abenevolent planner. Even assuming a "no-redistribution" constraint, first periodexpenditures are in general progressive with income, and independent both fromtotal level of action, and from future distribution of damages. However, instatus-quo mandates-where current negotiating powers shape both present andfuture allocation-future distributions of efforts are very unequal, andagreement, if any, is at high risk of instability. An adaptative mandate provesnecessary to provide an acceptable solution.Equitable Provision; Long-Term Public Goods; Negotiation Mandates

Why economic growth dynamics matter inassessing climate change damages: illustrationon extreme events

Extreme events are one of the main channels through which climate and socio- economic systems interact and it is likely that climate change will modify their probability distributions. The long-term growth models used in climate change as- sessments, however, cannot capture the effects of such short-term shocks. To inves- tigate this issue, a non-equilibrium dynamic model (NEDyM) is used to assess the macroeconomic consequences of extreme events. In the model, dynamic processes multiply the extreme event direct costs by a factor 20. Half of this increase comes from short-term processes, that long-term growth models cannot capture. The model exhibits also a bifurcation in GDP losses: for a given distribution of extremes, there is a value of the ability to fund reconstruction below which GDP losses increases dramatically. This bifurcation may partly explain why some poor countries that experience repeated natural disasters cannot develop. It also shows that changes in the distribution of extremes may entail significant GDP losses and that climate change may force a specific adaptation of the economic organization. These results show that averaging short-term processes like extreme events over the yearly time step of a long-term growth model can lead to inaccurately low assessments of the climate change damages.Dynamics; Extreme events; Economic impacts; Climate Change

Dans le labyrinthe de verre. La négociation sur l'effet de serre

National audienceEn parcourant les étapes principales de la « négociation climat », on fait apparaître le jeu de miroirs qui se déroule entre Europe et États-Unis, dans un contexte historique caractérisé par les débats sur la mondialisation, la volonté de leadership de l'Union européenne sur ce thème, la montée aux États-Unis d'inquiétudes sur le maintien de leur suprématie.On montre aussi pourquoi ce jeu, après avoir masqué des possibilités réelles de compromis, a débouché en 2000 sur l'échec de La Haye – qui facilitera le rejet du Protocole de Kyoto par le président Bush – puis sur l'adoption à Marrakech, en novembre 2001, d'un schéma d'application de ce Protocole par les autres nations, qui constitue une défaite diplomatique pour les États-Unis et une demi-défaite pour l'environnement

Enjeux géopolitiques du développement durable

L'observateur formé au doute cartésien pourrait s'étonner de la conversion récente des élites françaises à la thématique du développement durable. Elles la considérèrent longtemps avec tant de distraction que le rapport Brundtland, qui l'installa sur l'agenda diplomatique en 1986, dut être traduit au Québec pour être disponible en version français en 19881. Que faire en effet d'une expression vague, réceptacle de préoccupations disparates qui vont de la rareté des ressources à la disparition des cultures locales en passant par les coûts environnementaux, le principe de précaution face aux risques technologiques, la pauvreté et la sécurité énergétique ? A travers un impératif de solidarité intergénérationnelle2, le développement durable3 lie une réflexion sur le principe de responsabilité4 à un questionnement sur la poursuite du type de modernisation lancé par la révolution industrielle. Mais les sceptiques sont en droit de se demander pourquoi un tel questionnement intellectuel a pu devenir un objet diplomatique

Mitigation factors: Assessing the costs of reducing GHG emissions

International audienceThe debate over the costs of GHG emission reduction has become more com-plex recently as disagreements over the existence of economic and environ-mental double dividents have been added to discussions over the existence of a negative cost potential. We argue that basic assumptions about economic effi-ciency, the (sub-)optimality of the baseline and the rate of technical change are more important than model structure, and we underline the importance of the timing of decisions for determining the costs. Moreover the use of a single baseline ‘no policy' scenario and several policy intervention scenarios may be fundamentally misleading in the longer term simply because the very idea of a business as usual scenario is deeply problematic. Ultimately the debate turns on political judgments about the desirability of alternative development paths. Copright© 1996 Elsevier Science Ltd